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国泰君安期货点评：沪镍涨幅突破5%皇冠骰宝，其主要原因在于宏观压力释放，海外低库存格局给予高弹性。但基于国内现实供应压力偏高，建议短期以谨慎逢高空的思路对待。美国5月CPI同比增长4.0%低于预期，加息预期边际降温，释放宏观压力，而镍作为低库存品种，进一步给予多头推涨的信心。从基本面来看，近期俄镍到货体量偏高且国内投产边际增加，叠加盘面偏高导致现货升水下行且成交清淡，国内基本面或难以给予沪镍上行驱动。但由于尽管国内供应偏向过剩，但尚未形成大量出口，海外近端库存延续低位，LME0-3升贴水边际上升。但是，随着供应预期的逐步兑现，预计镍价仍有望边际回落，建议短期以逢高空思路对待。